A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals that one year before the presidential election, both Joe Biden and Donald Trump hold 37% of the vote. However, independent candidate
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seems to be influencing the dynamics by siphoning off potential support from Trump. Kennedy, a member of the well-known Democratic Kennedy family, secures 13% of the vote in a hypothetical matchup, drawing a significant number of voters who would otherwise back the probable Republican nominee.
In addition to Kennedy, progressive activist Cornel West, who plans an independent campaign, garners 4% support. West's supporters would primarily shift to Biden if he were not on the ballot. This survey highlights the complex calculations and evolving dynamics in the likely rematch of the 2020 nominees, with the added element of one or more prominent independent candidates.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters, both via landline and cellphone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Independent candidates like Kennedy, in the vein of H. Ross Perot in 1992, threaten to disrupt the traditional two-party calculations of presidential campaigns. If Kennedy were not in the picture, Trump would lead Biden 41%-39%, while without West, Biden would edge out Trump 38%-37%. Without either Kennedy or West, Biden and Trump would be neck-and-neck at 41%.
Meanwhile, Trump solidifies his position as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, securing 58% of the Republican vote, up from the previous USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll in June. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump's leading challenger at the time, has dropped to 12%, just a point ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 11%. Other contenders fall below 3%.
Though Biden and Trump are currently tied at 37%, Trump maintains a significant advantage in terms of voter enthusiasm, with 50% of Republicans rating their enthusiasm as a perfect 10, while Biden falls behind at 29% among Democrats. Trump's job approval rating stands at 40% approve and 56% disapprove, with a higher intensity of strong disapproval (41%) compared to strong approval (13%).
Trump's supporters appear unwavering, with 27% declaring that nothing could prevent them from voting for him. Only a minority (14%) would consider voting for a better candidate, while 12% would not support him if he were in jail. Photo by Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, Wikimedia commons.