As the November 5 presidential election nears, Donald Trump is closing the gap with Democrats' traditional advantage among Hispanic men, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll analysis.
Trump, the Republican candidate, is now just two points behind Democrat Kamala Harris among Hispanic men, with support at 44% compared to Harris's 46%. This is a sharp shift from 2020, where Trump trailed Joe Biden among Hispanic men by 19 points. The analysis is based on over 15,000 responses collected through October 21, compared to a similar period in 2020.
Trump’s gains among Hispanic men, however, are balanced by increased support for Harris among white women. In 2020, white women favored Trump over Biden by 12 points; now, white women lean Republican by only three points, with Harris at 43% compared to Trump’s 46%. The tight race currently shows Harris with a slight edge at 46% to Trump's 43% in the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll from October 16-21.
These demographic shifts reveal broader changes in both candidates’ electoral bases. Trump has made inroads with Hispanic and Black men, while Harris has chipped away at the Republican lead among white voters, especially among women.
Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing demographic in the U.S. electorate, have leaned Democratic in presidential elections since the 1970s. Yet, recent polls indicate a shift, with Trump’s support among registered Hispanic voters rising from 30% in 2020 to 37%. Harris leads with 51% among Hispanic voters, slightly down from Biden’s 54% in 2020. Trump ultimately received 38% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, marking the highest Republican share since George W. Bush’s 44% in 2004.
Gains Among Black Men
Trump is also making inroads among Black men, with recent polls showing 18% support compared to 14% four years ago. He has also seen a modest rise among Black women, up from 4% to 8%. Exit polls in 2020 indicated about 8% of Black voters overall supported Trump, while recent data shows him at 12%.
Kristin Davison, a Republican strategist, attributes Trump’s appeal to Black voters to his focus on economic issues, social conservatism, and family values. For many supporters, these messages resonate, with some saying Trump demonstrates an intent to see everyone succeed, regardless of race.
Conversely, Harris has bolstered her position among white women voters, who made up around 40% of the electorate in 2020. While her support among white men remains largely unchanged, her increased favor with white women reduces Trump’s lead with white voters overall to nine points, down from 14 in 2020.
Shifting Priorities Among Women
The 2022 Supreme Court ruling ending the federal right to abortion has also pushed some women toward Harris, according to Davison. Meghan Hays, a Democratic strategist, notes that women are weighing the contrasts in leadership and character between the candidates. Harris’s strength among women is vital, Hays adds, as it helps offset Trump’s increased support among Hispanic and Black men.
For some, voting for Harris is more about rejecting Trump’s influence. Donna Berg, a white voter from Illinois, supported Trump in 2016 and 2020 but said the January 6 Capitol attack ended her support. “I’m not necessarily voting for her as much as voting against Trump,” Berg said.
With tight margins and shifting voter coalitions, both candidates continue to navigate a complex race leading up to Election Day.