Kari Lenander, who runs migrant shelters in west Texas and New Mexico, has seen a dramatic shift in the number of migrants seeking refuge. Once bustling with
activity, her shelters are now largely empty.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data shows that migrant apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border dropped significantly in July, reaching the lowest level since President Biden took office. This marks the fifth consecutive month of declining crossings, a rare victory for an administration that has faced intense scrutiny over border security. The CBP is set to release the new figures publicly on Friday.
"The numbers have indeed decreased and have decreased significantly," said Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in an interview with USA TODAY. He attributed the drop to various factors, including the creation of new legal pathways for migrants, stricter consequences for illegal crossings, tougher asylum restrictions, and enhanced cooperation with countries like Mexico, Guatemala, Panama, and Colombia.
Historically, shifts in U.S. border policy have led to temporary decreases in crossings, as migrants and smugglers adjust to new rules. However, this recent decline has lasted longer than previous efforts, leading to an eerie calm at border shelters like Lenander's in El Paso, where the once-busy facilities now stand mostly empty.
Despite the drop in numbers, Lenander remains cautious. The root causes driving people to flee their homelands persist, raising questions about where the migrants have gone.
Migration Trends Show New Patterns
For years, Republicans have criticized the Biden administration's "open border" policies, pointing to record-breaking migrant encounters over the past three years, with over 2.5 million last year alone. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a vocal critic, pledged to continue sending buses of migrants to "sanctuary cities" until the border was secured.
However, as the Democratic National Convention approaches, the narrative appears to be shifting. According to CBP data, migrant encounters in July dropped to 56,408—down 57% from the same month last year and 32% from June. This decline occurred across all demographics, including single adults, family units, and unaccompanied minors, at a time when migration typically surges.
Even the number of migrants using the CBP One app to make appointments at ports of entry decreased from over 44,000 in July last year to roughly 38,000 this year.
Lenander’s shelter still receives about 100 migrants per day, most of whom entered the U.S. through legal channels using the CBP One app. These migrants are not eligible for the Texas "migrant buses," which are reserved for those who crossed unlawfully. The last bus from El Paso, once a staging ground for such trips, departed last week.
"The buses have stopped," Lenander said. "Not because Abbott wanted them to stop but because there weren't any people."
Efforts to Curb Illegal Immigration
Across the border in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, recent heavy rains filled the Rio Grande, where abandoned items left by previous migrants now sit untouched. Earlier this year, hundreds of migrants and families gathered here, waiting for a chance to cross into the U.S. through gaps in the Texas National Guard's concertina wire. Now, the riverbanks are nearly deserted.
Reducing dangerous crossings between ports of entry has been a central goal of the Biden administration, though it has proven challenging. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris's early message to migrants, "Do not come," illegal crossings surged to record levels in 2023.
In response, the White House supported a bipartisan Senate bill that aimed to bolster border security, add Border Patrol agents, and tighten access to the U.S. asylum system. However, the bill failed to pass after opposition from former President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, ongoing negotiations between the U.S., Mexico, and other countries have begun to yield results, slowing the flow of migrants. In June, the White House issued an executive order sharply limiting asylum claims at the border, while the Department of Homeland Security ramped up deportations and removals.
"The decline in unlawful border crossings has lasted longer than other measures in the past," Mayorkas noted, citing the comprehensive nature of the current strategy.
As Lenander continues her daily work, she sees a stark contrast from previous years. Notifications from Border Patrol’s El Paso Sector, once indicating hundreds of releases needing shelter, now report single-digit figures.
Under the Wire
As dawn broke over the Rio Grande, a small group of migrants cautiously approached a gap in the concertina wire. A little girl, followed by three women and a man, crawled under the sharp coils. They quickly made their way to the U.S. border wall, where they were soon confronted by Border Patrol agents.
Their fate remains uncertain. Without a CBP One appointment, they are likely to be returned to Mexico or deported to their home country.
"Migrants have a lot of information needs," said Daniel Berlin, policy director for protection pathways at the International Rescue Committee. "The situation both in Mexico and at the U.S. border is extremely complicated."
Regardless of what smuggling networks might claim, Berlin stressed, "the U.S. border is not open by any stretch. It’s as closed as it has been in a very long time."