In a potential 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden, former President Donald Trump currently trails by only two points, according to most surveys. However, a new poll
suggests that if Trump were to be convicted before Election Day, his chances would decrease by 4 percent.
While many polls indicate a close race between Trump and Biden, the latest poll offers insights into the potential consequences of Trump facing conviction on any of the four sets of charges against him.
The most recent WPA Intelligence poll indicates that regardless of whether Trump is convicted or not, Biden would win. However, if Trump avoids conviction, his chances of securing a second term increase by 4 percent, with Trump at 41 percent and Biden at 43 percent.
Even among Republican voters, there is a slight decrease of 5 percent in support for Trump if he is convicted, with at least 6 percent of GOP voters stating that they would not vote for him if he faces conviction.
Notably, 81 percent of Republicans surveyed said that a conviction would not impact their support for Trump, while 86 percent would still vote for him if he remains conviction-free.
The charges against Trump include allegations related to a 'hush-money' payment to porn star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election and holding classified documents after leaving office. Additionally, Trump faces charges in two separate cases related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in Washington, D.C., and Fulton County, Georgia.
The poll also revealed that nearly two-thirds of voters, or 63 percent, agree with the charges against Trump in Georgia.
Chris Wilson, the CEO of WPA Intelligence, is also responsible for polling and data for the political action committee aligned with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Never Back Down PAC. While DeSantis typically trails behind Trump in polls, recent regional surveys indicate that he is slipping behind other candidates like biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
It is important to note that the survey was not sponsored by the PAC supporting DeSantis for the nomination. Photo by Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, Wikimedia commons.