Donald Trump is currently leading Joe Biden in four out of six pivotal swing states in anticipation of the 2024 United States presidential election, as indicated by a fresh poll conducted for
The Telegraph. This early polling data suggests that Trump's initial campaign efforts are resonating in these battleground states, as he maintains a lead in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida, while sharing an even footing with Joe Biden in Michigan.
Trump, the strong frontrunner for the Republican nomination, is also perceived as the more robust leader of the two candidates and the better-equipped individual to address America's challenges in all six states, including Pennsylvania, where Biden enjoys a general lead.
This exclusive poll is the first installment in a series of swing state surveys conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of The Telegraph in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election scheduled for November 5, 2024. This initiative aims to monitor the progress of the presidential candidates and the central issues steering their campaigns.
Despite national polling that suggests the two candidates are running neck and neck across the United States, the initial Telegraph poll highlights that Trump is leading in two states he previously won in 2016 but lost to Biden in 2020.
In Georgia, where Trump is currently facing racketeering charges related to his attempts to overturn Biden's razor-thin victory in 2020, he is now three points ahead, with 43 percent of voters supporting him, compared to 40 percent for Biden.
In Arizona, another state where Biden prevailed by a slim margin in 2020, Trump currently enjoys a five-point lead.
In Florida and North Carolina, the two closest Republican-leaning states in 2020, a plurality of voters also express a preference for voting for Trump.
The results, which have been adjusted for voter turnout, also reveal concerns among voters regarding Biden's age and health following a series of public gaffes.
A majority of respondents in all six states either agreed or strongly agreed that Biden is too old to seek office again, while less than half expressed the same view about Trump. When asked about the better physical and mental health of the two candidates, the largest group of voters in all six states chose Trump.
Moreover, across all six states, voters believe that Trump is a strong leader, will take a tough stance on China, can rejuvenate the economy, and comprehends the challenges confronting America. Biden leads in two qualities: that he cares about people like them and is willing to work with the other party when possible. Additionally, voters in five out of the six states believe he is more likely to tell the truth.
This poll emerges as Trump confronts two criminal prosecutions for his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. In Georgia, he stands accused of running a "criminal enterprise" to manipulate the vote to overturn Biden's slender majority. Thirty-five percent of voters in the state express a greater inclination to vote for Trump due to the ongoing legal proceedings, compared to 30 percent who say they would be less likely to vote for him.
Trump also faces indictment in a separate federal case in Washington for a "conspiracy to defraud the United States" and for allegedly encouraging rioters to storm the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. In all six swing states, the largest share of voters, ranging from 46 to 50 percent, expresses support for the legal proceedings against Trump, considering them legitimate rather than politically motivated.
While Trump is encountering challenges from multiple other Republicans for the 2024 nomination, Biden's path to securing the Democratic ticket appears clear. On Monday, one of his prominent presumed challengers, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., announced he would run as an independent candidate, focusing on a populist campaign that criticizes the two major parties, Wall Street, and pharmaceutical companies. Kennedy is an anti-vaccine activist and intends to disrupt the election by drawing supporters away from both Biden and Trump.
However, despite the conventional belief that Kennedy's campaign would primarily harm Trump, The Telegraph's poll suggests that it is Biden who would face greater challenges in a three-way race. With Kennedy included on the ballot, Trump leads Biden in five of the six swing states polled and ties with him in Pennsylvania, the sixth state.
The survey demonstrates that Kennedy could secure seven percent of the vote in Michigan, eight percent in Georgia, Florida, and Arizona, and nine percent in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. These results are cause for concern for Biden's campaign, more than a year ahead of the election, and prompt reflection on whether the same strategy that worked in 2020 can be effective once again.
The poll findings suggest that Democrats cannot rely on a repeat of the 2020 election outcome, as Trump appears to be in a strong position to win back two states he lost in 2020 but won in 2016, with the remaining two states too close to predict. In the upcoming 2024 presidential election, the outcome may be even more tightly contested, emphasizing the need for a new and strategic approach. Photo by Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America, Wikimedia commons.