Reuters interviews with evangelical leaders and opinion polls indicate that former President Donald Trump still commands the support of a significant share of conservative Christian voters.
However, some conservative Christian voters are open to other candidates, and there is a window of opportunity for a challenger to peel some of that support away. Evangelical voters are critical to winning early Republican primary states such as Iowa, which holds the first the presidential nominating contest of the 2024 election early next year, and South Carolina. Winning strong evangelical support early in the Republican primary could give a challenger a chance to strike a blow against Trump, the front-runner for the nomination, and slow his momentum.
In 2020, Trump won 76% of the white evangelical vote, down from 80% in 2016, according to Edison Research exit polls. About one-third of U.S. adults identify as born-again or evangelical Christians, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in November 2020. At the moment, an opening exists for another candidate such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump’s closest rival, to pull some evangelical votes away from the former president, interviews and opinion polls show.
However, some evangelical voters have coalesced behind Trump, who they credit with a series of conservative policy victories including the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision overturning federal abortion protections. According to a March Monmouth University poll, Trump edged DeSantis among evangelicals in a two-way matchup, 51% to 42%, a nine-point improvement for Trump from the previous month. A Des Moines Register poll of Iowa voters in March also underscored Trump’s continued popularity among evangelicals, with 58% of them reporting a favorable assessment of the former president, though 39% viewed him unfavorably and 3% were unsure.
The stakes are high. If another candidate cannot peel away some of Trump’s evangelical support, he is likely to win the Republican nomination, which would put him in a strong position to win the general election. Prominent evangelical leaders such as Franklin Graham and Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, have said they are not endorsing Trump or any other candidate at the moment as the race moves forward.
However, some pastors who spoke to Reuters said that with abortion no longer a pressing federal issue, evangelicals are increasingly animated by issues surrounding transgender athletes and gender identity. “That is the issue that will drive evangelicals to the polls” in large numbers, said Pastor Robert Jeffress, an influential evangelical who heads a 14,000-member church in Dallas.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, a devout evangelical who may soon launch a presidential bid, and Senator Tim Scott, who is exploring a run, will headline the list of attendees at a presidential forum on Saturday in Iowa sponsored by a conservative nonprofit group, the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. DeSantis is scheduled to travel to Iowa in May to attend a fundraiser held by U.S. Representative Randy Feenstra.
Bob Vander Plaats, a longtime evangelical leader in Iowa, said he doesn’t yet see any “galvanizing” around Trump and believes the evangelical base is “exceptionally wide open” to hearing from all the candidates. Vander Plaats said evangelicals will consider whether Trump can prevail next year after losing the 2020 election to President Joe Biden. He said some evangelicals were upset with Trump for blaming a lackluster performance by Republicans in the 2022 midterms on the party’s focus on restricting abortion. Vander Plaats said he was among those looking for someone new in 2024. “I think America is ready to turn the page,” he said. Photo by Gage Skidmore, Wikimedia commons.