As scientists in the United States prepare for the upcoming flu season, they are closely monitoring Australia, which has experienced an early start to its flu season. The spike in flu cases,
particularly among children, in some parts of Australia could potentially indicate what lies ahead for the US.
Currently, flu activity in the US is low, as expected for this time of year. The COVID-19 pandemic has added some unpredictability to the flu season, but typically, people don't start falling ill until around October, and doctors' offices become busier between December and February.
In the Southern Hemisphere, where winter is underway, flu cases began increasing sharply in early May, according to the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care. While the number of cases is higher than the five-year average, it remains lower than at the same time in 2019 and 2022.
Experts are particularly attentive to the number of flu cases among children in Australia this year. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Carrie Reed stated that they closely monitor the flu season in the Southern Hemisphere to gain insights into what might happen in the US during its fall and winter seasons.
The flu is a significant virus to monitor due to its impact on public health and healthcare costs. The CDC estimates that between 2010 and 2020, the flu caused millions of illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths in the US, costing the country billions of dollars.
To forecast the US flu season, the CDC collaborates with academic groups and private industry experts specializing in flu forecasting and modeling. These forecasts are based on data from clinical labs, emergency departments, hospital networks, and death certificates. While the early and intense flu season in Australia can provide some insights, predicting the flu's behavior remains challenging due to the influence of human behavior and various factors.
Dr. William Schaffner from Vanderbilt University Medical Center highlighted that the upcoming flu season in the US will be further complicated by the availability of a new updated COVID-19 vaccine and recently licensed RSV vaccines. The challenge lies in ensuring that adults receive all the necessary vaccinations to protect against multiple diseases.
The vaccination rates have been a concern during the pandemic, and lower flu vaccination rates among children in Australia could contribute to the increased flu cases. As the US continues to monitor Australia's flu situation and analyze the data, it is still too early to predict the exact course of the 2023 flu season in the US. Various factors can influence the outcome, and much can change before flu activity becomes more apparent. Photo Credit: Cynthia Goldsmith, Wikimedia commons.