UBS Group has lifted its mid-2026 gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce, up from a previous estimate of $4,200, citing continued strength in a rally that has
already pushed the metal up 56% this year.
In a report released Thursday, analysts at the Swiss bank said they expect the macro forces driving gold’s surge—Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and shifts in U.S. policy—to keep demand robust well into next year.
The bank also highlighted the deteriorating U.S. fiscal outlook as a catalyst for sustained interest in gold from both central banks and investors, who continue to favor the metal for its lack of counterparty risk. UBS added that demand from gold-backed exchange-traded funds is likely to remain strong in 2026.
Under its bullish scenario, UBS projects gold could climb to $4,900 per ounce, about $200 higher than its previous upside target and roughly 20% above current prices. Its downside case remains unchanged at $3,700 per ounce.
Despite its optimistic stance, UBS flagged risks that could temper gold’s ascent, including a potential return to Fed hawkishness and the possibility of central banks offloading gold reserves.
The bank’s upgraded outlook comes as gold trades in a consolidating range following its record peak near $4,381 per ounce a month ago. Since then, prices have largely held between $4,000 and $4,100, aside from a brief jump toward $4,200 in mid-November.
Looking ahead, UBS expects another period of consolidation around $4,300 per ounce in late 2026, following the conclusion of the U.S. midterm elections. Photo by Tiia Monto, Wikimedia commons.