Global coffee prices have shot up this month — and Brazil’s top coffee exporters say U.S. trade policy is a big reason why.

According to Cecafe, Brazil’s coffee exporters council, arabica coffee prices on the New York ICE exchange have climbed more than 30% in August. The jump comes after the U.S. slapped a steep 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports starting August 6.

Marcio Ferreira, Cecafe’s president, says the tariff has essentially priced Brazilian coffee out of the U.S. market. “The hike created a climate of uncertainty and drove global prices higher — and right now, there’s no telling where the ceiling might be,” he explained.

On Friday, arabica futures were trading around $3.74 per pound, up from $2.80 just a few weeks ago.

Adding fuel to the rally, Brazil’s harvest — which is nearly complete — is coming in about 10% below expectations, and recent frosts could hit next year’s crop too. That means supply won’t be catching up anytime soon.

Importers are scrambling to source beans from Central America and Colombia, but those come at a premium, further tightening the market. Speculative funds have also jumped in, betting prices will rise even more.

Interestingly, while U.S. buyers are pulling back, demand from Europe and Asia is booming. Ferreira noted that much of that growth isn’t necessarily local consumption — in some cases, countries like Germany are re-exporting processed coffee to the U.S., which faces lower tariffs on European goods.

In short: higher tariffs on Brazil, tighter supplies, and speculative money pouring in have created the perfect storm — and for coffee drinkers, it likely means higher prices at the café. Photo by Zimmermanns, Wikimedia commons.