September 13, 2018

How Bitcoin Will Make You Big Money Again

If you are a Bitcoin fan or looking for the next opportunity for a Bitcoin rally, you may not have long to wait before a price breakout takes place. Our research team at The Technical Traders believes a price breakout may occur before the end of 2018 – the only question is will it be a breakout rally or a breakdown crash before the next mega rally?

Cryptos and, in particular, Bitcoin has increased in popularity and adoption over the past 24 months across the globe. Recently, Citigroup has announced new technology making Crypto transactions more secure and reducing the risk of such transactions. Additionally, Circle recently announced a US Dollar based Crypto currency that is backed by Goldman-Sachs. News from Europe is that the EU has been urged to adopt common Crypto Currency rules that will fuel more attention and enterprise on developing suitable Crypto solutions for the European markets.

All of this plays into our research that a breakout/breakdown is inevitable and it is just a matter of time before this coiling price consolidation “apexes” and expands.

This chart shows massive breakdown washout below $6000 taking it back to prices before crypto became popular in early 2017.



This next chart below shows our cycle analysis and how much bitcoin moved from our cycle bottoms to tops. We are now at NEARING a critical juncture of a $6000 breakdown which is clearly a support level, and a potential major cycle bottom or continuation down cycle. Huge money can be made from this extreme volatility that is about to unfold and savvy technical traders can see the profit potential unfolding.



We urge all traders to keep Cryptos in focus over the next few weeks and months. Our research team shares our proprietary analysis and research with our paid members regarding the Crypto currency trends and trades.

If you want to learn what we believe will be the next big move in the Crypto markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn more. Our proprietary modeling systems are clearly showing us what we should expect over the next few weeks and months. As a member, you will have access to this research and benefit from our Daily Research Videos.

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

September 6, 2018

Crude Oil Likely to Find Support in this Uptrend

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70 - 71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5 - 7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.

When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.


This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.



The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2 - 3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns). Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities. Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored. These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at The Technical Traders to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

September 6, 2018

Crude Oil Likely to Find Support in this Uptrend

I have focused my attention on the recent price rotation in the Crude Oil market. I believe the recent downside rotation in price, while technically still in a bullish trend, is an excellent opportunity for traders to identify entry positions for a potential price rally to levels near of above $70 - 71 ppb.

My proprietary price modeling systems and price cycle systems are clearly illustrating that Oil prices should find support, bottom and rotate higher within the next 5 - 7+ days. I rely on these proprietary indicators and modeling systems to help understand when opportunities exist in the markets.

When I can determine that price is moving counter to a primary trend and creating what I call a “price anomaly”, where enhanced opportunity exists for a profitable outcome, I attempt to determine if this trigger warrants alerting our followers. In this case, I believe the opportunity for upside price action following this price rotation is exceptional.

This first chart shows our proprietary price cycle modeling system at work and clearly shows the key Fibonacci support levels that I believe will act as a floor for the price of oil. I believe a bottom will form near $67 ppb and a new price rally will result in prices moving quickly back above $70 ppb.


This second chart shows the XLE price cycles on a Daily basis and I want to highlight the potential for a price move from near $73 to well above $76 (or higher) if our analysis is correct. This reflects a +4~8% price move that I believe could happen within the next 5~10+ days.



The research here shows a long entry trade over the next 2 - 3 trading days is ideal and that this move will likely end before September 21 (if the market does not change its current cycle patterns). Overall, this could be an opportunity for skilled traders and investors.

Often, followers and subscribers find my research of finding and alerting them to these types of opportunities. Most of the time, these types of triggers are ones that members would have missed or ignored. These proprietary price modeling tools provide us with a strong advantage over other traders. If you want to learn what it is like to have forward looking prediction systems backing you up every day with Daily video analysis, detailed global market research, clear trading triggers/signals and more, then join me at The Technical Traders to learn how I can help you.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 22, 2018

Is Gold on the Verge of a Bottom – See for Yourself

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe. With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the U.S. Dollar strengthens. It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade. Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane. For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range. Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Our team of researchers, at The Technical Traders, believe something very interesting may be taking place in Gold right now – almost like a “Deja Vu” of the past. A double setup appears to have taken place recently and we believe the bottom may have already formed in Gold for now.

In early 2016 through November 2016 where price rallied 31% then retraced nearly 75% to form the second leg higher. This deep retracement of price was indicative of a wide price rotation before another leg higher pushed back up to near the all time highs.

From 2017 until now the Gold chart shows another 75% price retracement from recent highs once again. This second 75% retracement could be a massive bottom formation setting up in Gold and could be a huge “wash out” low price. We believe this unique retracement is indicative of a massive price breakout over the next year or so as the price of gold is forming what Stan Weinstein calls a Stage 1 Accumulation.


Now, let’s zoom in and take a look at the weekly chart and our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model, the predictive analysis suggests that Gold prices should begin to bottom within the next week or two and begin to climb much higher over the next 3 to 10+ weeks.

This pattern consists of 12 unique instances of data and suggests that the future upswing will start rather mild for the first 2 weeks, then begin to accelerate as time progresses. It appears we have a strong potential to see prices above $1400 within the next 5 - 8 weeks or so and you look at the previous chart above, what is the $1400 level? You got it! Resistance, and if price breaks out above $1400 a new bull market would be triggered!


As many of you are aware, Gold is often a move to safety when the global economy begins to show signs of chaos or weakness. We believe the move in the U.S. Dollar will stall and possibly correct as this move takes place. If Gold were to rally while the U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen, you can clearly assume that a flight to safety is taking place and it includes a massive capital migration toward U.S. equities and GOLD. If the rally in gold is seen while the U.S. Dollar weakens or stalls, then we are seeing a move to safety while the currency markets address regional and global currency market issues.

Either way, we expect Gold to begin a new rally higher off of this 75% retracement level to complete the Pennant formation that is currently set up for a Wave 5 upside price expansion. Some of this technical analysis may be over your head as it can be confusing, but you should get the gist of things which is that precious metals should find a bottom and there is the potential that a massive bull market could be on the horizon if price rallies quickly. Be prepared for this move because the Gold shorts will likely be forced to cover their positions within the next few weeks as this move begins to accelerate higher.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find these types of swings in the major markets. We alert our clients well in advance of these swings and deliver daily video content to all of our members before the market opens each day. Our objective is to make you a better trader and to help you find successful setups to create greater success. Visit our website to learn how we can help you become a better trader today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.





Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 22, 2018

Is Gold on the Verge of a Bottom – See for Yourself

The recent downward price swing in Gold has kept Goldbugs frothing at what they believe is a very unusual and unexplained price function in the face of so much uncertainty throughout the globe. With Turkey, Russia, China and many others experiencing massive economic and currency crisis events, Gold has actually been creeping lower as the U.S. Dollar strengthens. It is almost like a “Twilight Zone” episode for Gold Bulls.

The setup for a gold rally has been in place for over a decade. Much like in 2006 through 2008, the current price and volatility of Gold is simply mundane. For the past two years, Gold has rotated between $1190 and $1360 – within a $180 range. Certainly, Gold traders were able to find some profits within this range, but no breakout trends have been established since early 2016 when the price of Gold changed from Bearish to Bullish and a 31% rally took place driving prices $328.80 higher from the lows.

Our team of researchers, at The Technical Traders, believe something very interesting may be taking place in Gold right now – almost like a “Deja Vu” of the past. A double setup appears to have taken place recently and we believe the bottom may have already formed in Gold for now.

In early 2016 through November 2016 where price rallied 31% then retraced nearly 75% to form the second leg higher. This deep retracement of price was indicative of a wide price rotation before another leg higher pushed back up to near the all time highs.

From 2017 until now the Gold chart shows another 75% price retracement from recent highs once again. This second 75% retracement could be a massive bottom formation setting up in Gold and could be a huge “wash out” low price. We believe this unique retracement is indicative of a massive price breakout over the next year or so as the price of gold is forming what Stan Weinstein calls a Stage 1 Accumulation.


Now, let’s zoom in and take a look at the weekly chart and our Adaptive Dynamic Learning model, the predictive analysis suggests that Gold prices should begin to bottom within the next week or two and begin to climb much higher over the next 3 to 10+ weeks.

This pattern consists of 12 unique instances of data and suggests that the future upswing will start rather mild for the first 2 weeks, then begin to accelerate as time progresses. It appears we have a strong potential to see prices above $1400 within the next 5 - 8 weeks or so and you look at the previous chart above, what is the $1400 level? You got it! Resistance, and if price breaks out above $1400 a new bull market would be triggered!


As many of you are aware, Gold is often a move to safety when the global economy begins to show signs of chaos or weakness. We believe the move in the U.S. Dollar will stall and possibly correct as this move takes place. If Gold were to rally while the U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen, you can clearly assume that a flight to safety is taking place and it includes a massive capital migration toward U.S. equities and GOLD. If the rally in gold is seen while the U.S. Dollar weakens or stalls, then we are seeing a move to safety while the currency markets address regional and global currency market issues.

Either way, we expect Gold to begin a new rally higher off of this 75% retracement level to complete the Pennant formation that is currently set up for a Wave 5 upside price expansion. Some of this technical analysis may be over your head as it can be confusing, but you should get the gist of things which is that precious metals should find a bottom and there is the potential that a massive bull market could be on the horizon if price rallies quickly. Be prepared for this move because the Gold shorts will likely be forced to cover their positions within the next few weeks as this move begins to accelerate higher.

Visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can help you find these types of swings in the major markets. We alert our clients well in advance of these swings and deliver daily video content to all of our members before the market opens each day. Our objective is to make you a better trader and to help you find successful setups to create greater success. Visit our website to learn how we can help you become a better trader today.

Chris Vermeulen
Technical Traders Ltd.





Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 9, 2018

U.S. Markets Moving Higher Until November 2018 – Part I

Our trading partners at The Technical Traders Ltd. have been laboring over the recent market moves attempting to identify if and when the market may be likely to turn lower or contract. They’ve been pouring over all types of various data from numerous sources and have concluded the following is the most likely outcome for when the US stock markets may find a reason to pause of contract.

As you read this research post, please allow us a brief introduction of the facts that supported our research.

                              Source: Palisade Research

First, our research team started this investigative work after watching the Buffet Indicator climb from the 2015-16 rotation levels to new highs and achieve some recent news events. This indicator, being one of Warren Buffett’s favorite tools for understanding market valuations in comparison to debt levels provides some interesting components for our team to study. Yet, we believed this indicator chart lacked something relating to the global markets and the use of the debt capital to spur future global economic activity.

Therefore, our team went off in search of something that could help us rationalize these high Buffet Indicator levels in true relation to the global markets and in relation to the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place throughout the planet. The first component of our assumption about the global markets is that capital is rushing away from riskier markets and towards more stable markets. The second component of our assumption is that national debt obligations are being re-evaluated based on perceived risks and contagion issues throughout the globe. The last component of our assumption is that the new US President is shaking up quite a bit of the old constructs throughout the globe and that the processes and policies put in place by President Trump are creating a very dynamic global capital market environment at the moment.




When you consider these three components and their combined results on the global capital markets, we have to understand that there is a very strong possibility that the largest GDP producing countries on the planet, and their banking, institutional and investor classes, are all operating within some aspect of these three components. This means there is a potential for at least $7 to $15 Trillion (10~20% of total global GDP) US Dollars that are actively sourcing and seeking secure returns while avoiding risks and debt contagion. This is a massive capital shift that is taking place currently – likely the largest the planet has ever seen.

As the Buffet Indicator is showing, the US stock market is nearing or passing all-time highs in valuation in relation to US debt levels. Yet, how does the Buffet Indicator correlate the global capital shift that is taking place and equate these dynamics into fair value. The US market, being the likely target of this massive capital shift, is a fair source for valuations comparisons, but we are experiencing a capital shift that has never before been seen at the levels we are currently experiencing. Sure, there have been shifts of capital before – but not at the $10 to 20 trillion USD level.

If we compare the Buffet Indicator to this Fred Global Stock Market Capitalization to GDP chart, some interesting facts begin to take shape. First, the peaks in 1974, 1999, 2008 and 2018 on the Buffet Indicator are not as evident on this chart. The 1974 peak is relatively nonexistent. The 1999 peak is a much more muted (28%) peak than on the Buffet Indicator chart and the 2008 and 2018 peaks are relatively correlated to the Buffet Indicator chart. One should be asking the question, “why are the two most recent peaks more correlated than previous peaks on this global capitalization to GDP chart?”. Our answer to that question is that after the 1999~2000 US market peak, the globe entered into a much more cooperative economic phase with the EU, China, South America and many other nations operating as global peers vs. global competitors. It was after this time that the capital markets began to “sync” in some form to the central banks policies and the unification processes that were taking place throughout the globe.


We should, therefore, assume that any global market contagion or crisis will likely take place in some measured form throughout nearly all global markets when it happens. Additionally, as regional debt or capital market crisis events occur in certain nations, capital that was deployed in these nations or capital markets will likely rush to new, safer environments for periods of time. Capital is always hunting for the safest and most secure returns while attempting to avoid risk and devaluation.

The central bank policies of the past two decades have allowed a massive increase in the available capital throughout the globe. Global GDP has risen from $33.57 Trillion in 2000 to $80.68 Trillion today – a whopping 140% increase in only 18 years. Historically, global GDP has risen by approximately these levels every 15~20 year for the past 50+ years. This is likely the result of the US moving away from the Gold standard and foreign nations following along with fiat currency central banks since after the 1960s-70s.

This tells us that the peak in 2000 on this global capital market to GDP chart resulted in a moderately isolated capital market peak that was uniquely available within the US and major economies – not globally. The 2008 peak represented a more globally equal capital market peak. This means the majority of the global capital market experienced capital appreciation. The same thing is happening right now – the global markets are experiencing an overall capital market appreciation that is a result of the past 20+ years of central bank policies and economic recovery efforts.


53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 9, 2018

U.S. Markets Moving Higher Until November 2018 – Part I

Our trading partners at The Technical Traders Ltd. have been laboring over the recent market moves attempting to identify if and when the market may be likely to turn lower or contract. They’ve been pouring over all types of various data from numerous sources and have concluded the following is the most likely outcome for when the US stock markets may find a reason to pause of contract.

As you read this research post, please allow us a brief introduction of the facts that supported our research.

                              Source: Palisade Research

First, our research team started this investigative work after watching the Buffet Indicator climb from the 2015-16 rotation levels to new highs and achieve some recent news events. This indicator, being one of Warren Buffett’s favorite tools for understanding market valuations in comparison to debt levels provides some interesting components for our team to study. Yet, we believed this indicator chart lacked something relating to the global markets and the use of the debt capital to spur future global economic activity.

Therefore, our team went off in search of something that could help us rationalize these high Buffet Indicator levels in true relation to the global markets and in relation to the capital shift that we believe is currently taking place throughout the planet. The first component of our assumption about the global markets is that capital is rushing away from riskier markets and towards more stable markets. The second component of our assumption is that national debt obligations are being re-evaluated based on perceived risks and contagion issues throughout the globe. The last component of our assumption is that the new US President is shaking up quite a bit of the old constructs throughout the globe and that the processes and policies put in place by President Trump are creating a very dynamic global capital market environment at the moment.




When you consider these three components and their combined results on the global capital markets, we have to understand that there is a very strong possibility that the largest GDP producing countries on the planet, and their banking, institutional and investor classes, are all operating within some aspect of these three components. This means there is a potential for at least $7 to $15 Trillion (10~20% of total global GDP) US Dollars that are actively sourcing and seeking secure returns while avoiding risks and debt contagion. This is a massive capital shift that is taking place currently – likely the largest the planet has ever seen.

As the Buffet Indicator is showing, the US stock market is nearing or passing all-time highs in valuation in relation to US debt levels. Yet, how does the Buffet Indicator correlate the global capital shift that is taking place and equate these dynamics into fair value. The US market, being the likely target of this massive capital shift, is a fair source for valuations comparisons, but we are experiencing a capital shift that has never before been seen at the levels we are currently experiencing. Sure, there have been shifts of capital before – but not at the $10 to 20 trillion USD level.

If we compare the Buffet Indicator to this Fred Global Stock Market Capitalization to GDP chart, some interesting facts begin to take shape. First, the peaks in 1974, 1999, 2008 and 2018 on the Buffet Indicator are not as evident on this chart. The 1974 peak is relatively nonexistent. The 1999 peak is a much more muted (28%) peak than on the Buffet Indicator chart and the 2008 and 2018 peaks are relatively correlated to the Buffet Indicator chart. One should be asking the question, “why are the two most recent peaks more correlated than previous peaks on this global capitalization to GDP chart?”. Our answer to that question is that after the 1999~2000 US market peak, the globe entered into a much more cooperative economic phase with the EU, China, South America and many other nations operating as global peers vs. global competitors. It was after this time that the capital markets began to “sync” in some form to the central banks policies and the unification processes that were taking place throughout the globe.


We should, therefore, assume that any global market contagion or crisis will likely take place in some measured form throughout nearly all global markets when it happens. Additionally, as regional debt or capital market crisis events occur in certain nations, capital that was deployed in these nations or capital markets will likely rush to new, safer environments for periods of time. Capital is always hunting for the safest and most secure returns while attempting to avoid risk and devaluation.

The central bank policies of the past two decades have allowed a massive increase in the available capital throughout the globe. Global GDP has risen from $33.57 Trillion in 2000 to $80.68 Trillion today – a whopping 140% increase in only 18 years. Historically, global GDP has risen by approximately these levels every 15~20 year for the past 50+ years. This is likely the result of the US moving away from the Gold standard and foreign nations following along with fiat currency central banks since after the 1960s-70s.

This tells us that the peak in 2000 on this global capital market to GDP chart resulted in a moderately isolated capital market peak that was uniquely available within the US and major economies – not globally. The 2008 peak represented a more globally equal capital market peak. This means the majority of the global capital market experienced capital appreciation. The same thing is happening right now – the global markets are experiencing an overall capital market appreciation that is a result of the past 20+ years of central bank policies and economic recovery efforts.


53 years experience in researching and trading makes analyzing the complex and ever-changing financial markets a natural process. We have a simple and highly effective way to provide our customers with the most convenient, accurate, and timely market forecasts available today. Our stock and ETF trading alerts are readily available through our exclusive membership service via email and SMS text. Our newsletter, Technical Trading Mastery book, and 3 Hour Trading Video Course are designed for both traders and investors. Also, some of our strategies have been fully automated for the ultimate trading experience.



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 7, 2018

Technical Analysis and Rates Unchanged – Here We Go

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse. The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world. Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs. Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates. This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt. This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

Second, it allows the housing market and private debt markets to shake out some of the “at risk” consumers. We authored an article a few months ago about how foreclosures and pre-foreclosures were starting to increase in nearly all markets. At the time, many people in the real estate field shrugged off these increases as par for the course. With the decreasing foreign investment in real estate and the increasing pressures on the local consumer markets, we saw a dramatic slowdown in housing starts and sales activities recently. This is because the demand side of the market is falling much faster than the supply capacity.

The uncertainty in the foreign markets, global central banks, and foreign investments have prompted many people to pull out of the local markets – even the hot markets. The at-risk consumers that were trying to sell near this top suddenly found the buyers were just not there or ready to make the commitment. This put the at-risk consumers in a difficult position as they could not flip their houses as easily as they could 6 months ago.

Yet, in the global equity markets, investors can sell or buy with much faster transaction times – at the click of a mouse button in most cases. This allows equity investors to pull capital away from risky investments and migrate that capital into more secure investments in a matter of minutes or hours – not weeks or months. And that is exactly what has been happening over the past 30+ days in the global markets.

Capital is repositioning for the next phase of this market; where the US economy is strong, housing continues to weaken and at-risk consumers continue to feel the pressures of the US Fed interest rate policies. Where foreign consumers attempt to deal with their own version of “central bank hell” and asset devaluations in an attempt to find more secure investment vehicles for their capital. Money market funds, investment funds and, of course, the US value/blue-chip equities are looking very promising right about now.

This Daily SPY chart shows our recent ADLC indicator (price cycle turning points) and our oversold extreme price levels shaded with lime green. When these two things align the market tends to rally for 1-3 days with strong momentum. During pre-market last week, we told our followers that the big gap lower in price was going to be bought and price should rally for 2-3 days, which is exactly what has unfolded thus far.



Global capital will continue to rush into the US markets as long as the US Fed does not do anything to derail things. Our research team believes the US Fed may even decrease the interest rates by 0.25% before the end of the year depending on how much pressure is placed on the economy by these “at risk” participants.

We will continue to keep you updated as to our findings and we want to urge you to visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent research posts. You really owe it to yourself to understand what is happening in the global markets right now and how we have continued to stay 30-60 days ahead of these moves for our valued members. There are so many opportunities setting up in the markets for traders it is almost hard to understand the dynamics at play right now. If you want a dedicated team of researchers and traders to help you navigate these markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can provide you with even more detailed daily research and support.

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

August 7, 2018

Technical Analysis and Rates Unchanged – Here We Go

The U.S. Federal Reserve is one of the only central banks to attempt to raise rates consistently over the past few years, has possibly learned a very valuable lesson – no good comes from raising rates to the point of causing another market collapse. The news that the US Fed will leave interest rates where they are, temporarily, is good news for a number of reasons.

First, this allows the markets to shake out weaker players and weaker components of the corporate world. Where corporate debt levels are concerned, interest rates are tied to debt repayment liabilities and refinancing costs. Firms that are unable to manage at current interest rates certainly would not be happy about rising rates. This allows these corporations to either struggle to resolve their debt issues or collapse under the weight of their own debt. This will also play out in the foreign markets as well.

Second, it allows the housing market and private debt markets to shake out some of the “at risk” consumers. We authored an article a few months ago about how foreclosures and pre-foreclosures were starting to increase in nearly all markets. At the time, many people in the real estate field shrugged off these increases as par for the course. With the decreasing foreign investment in real estate and the increasing pressures on the local consumer markets, we saw a dramatic slowdown in housing starts and sales activities recently. This is because the demand side of the market is falling much faster than the supply capacity.

The uncertainty in the foreign markets, global central banks, and foreign investments have prompted many people to pull out of the local markets – even the hot markets. The at-risk consumers that were trying to sell near this top suddenly found the buyers were just not there or ready to make the commitment. This put the at-risk consumers in a difficult position as they could not flip their houses as easily as they could 6 months ago.

Yet, in the global equity markets, investors can sell or buy with much faster transaction times – at the click of a mouse button in most cases. This allows equity investors to pull capital away from risky investments and migrate that capital into more secure investments in a matter of minutes or hours – not weeks or months. And that is exactly what has been happening over the past 30+ days in the global markets.

Capital is repositioning for the next phase of this market; where the US economy is strong, housing continues to weaken and at-risk consumers continue to feel the pressures of the US Fed interest rate policies. Where foreign consumers attempt to deal with their own version of “central bank hell” and asset devaluations in an attempt to find more secure investment vehicles for their capital. Money market funds, investment funds and, of course, the US value/blue-chip equities are looking very promising right about now.

This Daily SPY chart shows our recent ADLC indicator (price cycle turning points) and our oversold extreme price levels shaded with lime green. When these two things align the market tends to rally for 1-3 days with strong momentum. During pre-market last week, we told our followers that the big gap lower in price was going to be bought and price should rally for 2-3 days, which is exactly what has unfolded thus far.



Global capital will continue to rush into the US markets as long as the US Fed does not do anything to derail things. Our research team believes the US Fed may even decrease the interest rates by 0.25% before the end of the year depending on how much pressure is placed on the economy by these “at risk” participants.

We will continue to keep you updated as to our findings and we want to urge you to visit The Technical Traders Free Market Research to read all of our most recent research posts. You really owe it to yourself to understand what is happening in the global markets right now and how we have continued to stay 30-60 days ahead of these moves for our valued members. There are so many opportunities setting up in the markets for traders it is almost hard to understand the dynamics at play right now. If you want a dedicated team of researchers and traders to help you navigate these markets, then visit The Technical Traders to learn how we can provide you with even more detailed daily research and support.

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

July 28, 2018

How the Fall in Crude Oil Price is Affecting the Gold Market

Gold prices started to fall following a stronger dollar and falling oil prices. The precious yellow metal lost more than 10% since its peak of $1,365.23 (C$1791.82) in April. Apart from falling oil prices, higher US interest rates are contributing to gold’s decline.

“In this environment where we also see oil prices falling, and so less concern from investors about rising inflation, that’s another negative for the gold price,” said Senior Analyst at Danske Bank in Copenhagen Jens Pedersen. “There are still some concerns about the geopolitical environment…so if these stories start to flare up again, it could lead investors back into gold.”

Gold and oil have a high correlation, meaning both commodities move together in the same direction. A strong dollar is an indicator that gold and oil prices will fall since both assets have an indirect correlation with the greenback.

Brent crude oil hit a 3 month low in July after a rise in US crude inventories recorded an increase in global supply and weak global demand. Crude oil fell by $0.49 (C$0.64) in an intraday low of $93.64 (C$0.64) a barrel — its lowest since April 17.

In response, gold also traded lower. The precious metal hit a 6 month low as the US dollar moved higher. Fears of an escalating trade war between the US and China did very little to support the increasing prices of gold. Based on FXCM’s gold prices, an ounce of gold only costs around $1,218 (C$1,598) – a sharp slide considering the prices of the precious metal in June, which was at $1,277 (C$1,676).

As for oil, the energy market recorded a slight price increase for crude as the US asked its trade partners to stop importing oil from Iran. The intraday trading for oil remained positive for MCX Gold but the upside is predicted to be limited to its current key resistance levels.

Higher interest rates tend to push the dollar up and make dollar denominated gold more expensive for investors. Gold is often seen as a safe haven asset, which is why it does not move in the same direction with the USD. A weakness in oil demand means that investors are putting more of their money in the dollar. High-interest rates make dollar investments attractive, weakening the demand in global commodities such as oil and gold.

“With the dollar on a solid footing, gold prices should stay pressured lower for the foreseeable future,” said Oanda’s Asia/Pacific Trade Chief Stephen Innes. “Gold has wholly lost its appeal in this enduringly bullish equity and dollar environment.”

Oil and gold’s correlation was discovered as early as 1983. Based on Tableu’s infographic, there have been 5 key moments in both commodities’ relationship that shows its direct correlation. In August 2011, gold skyrocketed to record highs and had peaked to $1,814 (C$2,380) due to a weak dollar and economic uncertainty. In the mid-2000s, the combination of declining production and increasing demand in Asia sent the prices of gold up. However, the 2008 global financial crisis caused a bubble-bursting trend, and both commodities’ prices declined by 78.1% from July to December.

As the US trade war with China, Canada, and Europe shows no sign of abating in the near future, investors will be looking to see if this does eventually have a positive impact on the price of gold and crude oil.

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